The
increased knowledge of facts may alter any conclusion in history as
in physical science, and the canons of speculative historical
credibility must be acknowledged to appeal rather to that
subjective attitude of mind which we call the historic sense than
to any formulated objective rules. But a scientific method is a
gain for all time, and the true if not the only progress of
historical criticism consists in the improvement of the instruments
of research.
Now first, as regards his conception of history, I have already
pointed out that it was to him essentially a search for causes, a
problem to be solved, not a picture to be painted, a scientific
investigation into laws and tendencies, not a mere romantic account
of startling incident and wondrous adventure. Thucydides, in the
opening of his great work, had sounded the first note of the
scientific conception of history. 'The absence of romance in my
pages,' he says, 'will, I fear, detract somewhat from its value,
but I have written my work not to be the exploit of a passing hour
but as the possession of all time.' (18) Polybius follows with
words almost entirely similar. If, he says, we banish from history
the consideration of causes, methods and motives ([Greek text which
cannot be reproduced]), and refuse to consider how far the result
of anything is its rational consequent, what is left is a mere
[Greek text which cannot be reproduced], not a [Greek text which
cannot be reproduced], an oratorical essay which may give pleasure
for the moment, but which is entirely without any scientific value
for the explanation of the future.
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